Lifecourse Associates, News Article: “The Fourth Turning: Crisis Of Trust”
19 03 - I recently went back over The Fourth Turning to recall how we dated Neil Howe Article from. mawatari.infoumresearch//03/ dating - the-fourth - turning /. Neil Howe demographer and co-authour of the book The Fourth Turning returns to the podcast this week. In our prior interview with him, we. Explore Howe & Strauss's methods and theories on the generations and the four turnings What is a Generation? Generational Archetypes · The Four Turnings.
It's a date that is looking better and better as time goes by. The year marked the onset of the most serious U. It also marked the election of Barack Obama, which could yet turn out to be a pivotal realignment date in U. In fact, if I had to give the catalyst a month, I would say September of The global Dow was in free fall. Money markets froze shut. Business owners held their breath. A crisis precursor is an event that foreshadows a crisis without being an integral part of it.
None of these initial responses have solved any of our pervasive problems or averted further emergencies. Not only haven't these responses resolved the intractable economic conundrums facing the world, but they have exacerbated the next round of monetary disasters rapidly approaching. The key point was those benefiting from the existing corrupt world order would do whatever it took to temporarily forestall a calamity which would result in their downfall, loss of power, and ultimate imprisonment.
They have successfully delayed the regeneracy phase of this Fourth Turning by turning on the monetary debt spigot full throttle. It is highly unlikely we will have a resolution to this Crisis period for at least another ten years, so if you think the worst is over you are badly mistaken. If the climax is somehow accelerated like the Civil War, it will likely result in bloody wars, with a horrific death toll.
The five year lull can be viewed as the world passing through the eye of an immense hurricane. There will always be ebbs, flows and lulls within a 20 year long Crisis, as seen in previous Fourth Turnings. The Boston Tea Party catalyst spark occurred in Decemberbut the fireworks didn't get going until and the regeneracy Declaration of Independence event in The Civil War Fourth Turning had no lulls.
Neil Howe Dating The Fourth Turning | ВКонтакте
The catalyst election of Abraham Lincoln to the regeneracy event of the First Battle of Bull Run was only nine months. The acceleration did not allow for cooler heads to prevail. The result was ghastly death and destruction. The misconceptions regarding generational theory and the Fourth Turning keep a vast swath of otherwise lucid thinkers from understanding the implications of generational mood changes which drive the cyclical nature of history.
The cognitive dissonance and normalcy bias of most Americans blinds them to the lessons of history and leaves them vulnerable to the winter that has beset the nation. The Fourth Turning is not a prophecy or some Nostradamus like predictions. It's a logical theory based upon the average time span of a long human life and the four phases of that life: The interaction of generations during their phases of life is what produces the profound mood changes throughout history.
The dramatic events during the course of antiquity are less important than how society responds to them.
The reaction is substantially determined by the season of the saeculum and the generational mood that aligns with that season. We've entered the Winter season, with bitterly cold days ahead and intense blizzard-like conditions forecast for the next decade. The ignorance of linear thinking advocates regarding the cyclical nature of history is either due to their "progressive" public educational brainwashing or their intellectual inability to grasp the obvious.
Our daily existence is cyclical with 24 hours in a day, days in year based upon earth's orbiting the sun, 12 months divided into four seasons, and the circle of life - birth through death is the ultimate cycle perpetuating life on this planet. There are dozens of astronomical, mathematical, religious, sleep, agricultural, social, economic and war cycles known to man. Martin Armstrong has a cycle theory predicting the collapse of government between and The Kondratiev Wave theory and Elliott Wave Theory are preached by "experts" and followed by millions.
The winners will now have the power to pursue the more potent, less incrementalist agenda which their adversaries had darkly warned.
This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation's attention. People ultimately will seek this as a means for society to survive the Crisis. It has no other choice. What will the winning trends from a political standpoint be according to Strauss and Howe as we move through the remainder of The Fourth Turning?
Calls to close the gap between rich and poor Reverse the decline of the middle class Expand children's programs relative to senior programs Restore an ethic of personal responsibility De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies Promote traditional values America will become more isolationist than today in it unwillingness to coordinate with other countries America will be less globally dependent than it is today with smaller cross-border trade and capital flows The economic role of government will shift toward far more spending on defense and public works than on elder care and debt service I don't know about you, but a lot of this sounds a lot like Donald Trump.
Or Bernie Sanders for that matter.
Don’t Call me a Millennial!: A Critique of “The Fourth Turning” by Neil Howe and William Strauss
It does not sound like Hillary Clinton. Look at some of the words above and see if you don't agree that in some ways it seems as if Trump has a keen understanding of where we are and what people are looking for. It is as if he is looking ahead and the Republican establishment can only see what is behind them.
There is very little gray in Trump's outlook. We can only hope. There are no promises. History is not made by events but by the reaction of human beings to events. We are hurtling down the road for a rendezvous with history of our own making. The choices that have been made and those that remain to be made will have deep consequences.
We can only trust that the American people will make the right choice. Yet it is the turning, not the nation, that elevates great people to the apex of power.
Lincoln and FDR are both cases in point. Both had to wait for the Crisis to hit. An Unraveling the Third Turning is an era when most people of intelligence, vision and integrity do not seek much less get elected to high public offices. After the Fourth Turning arrives, however, a Lincoln-like leader will be more likely to seek office, and a Lincoln-like leader could be exactly what America needs, wants and gets. History News Network I know it is hard to imagine associating Donald Trump and Abraham Lincoln but that might be the bet we are making in We may need no less than a Lincoln with what lies ahead.
Buy The Fourth Turning: Free UK delivery on eligible. Bantam Doubleday Dell Audio. Strauss and Howe will change the way you see the world—and your place in it. As such, we do not make any excuses for the absolute performance in portfolios year-to- date. I think Neil Howe summed up our current circumstance best in saying. This page may be out of date. Even Neil Howe was somewhat blindsided as just days before the election he was trying to come up with. Dating back to the Revolution, every generation but one has had a duration.
I think the fourth turning started -- probably, if I were to date it now -- in Last comes a Crisis - the Fourth Turning. William Strauss and Neil Howe base this vision on a provocative new theory of. My dad is really into The Fourth Turning: He gave me the books-on-tape version of the book. The crisis of the fourth turning lies in the near future-- not a pleasant thought given that the last one.
Chicago Author- Date15th ed.